This week, mortgage rates are mainly driven by the financial market’s wariness over President Trump’s economic policies. The Federal Reserve’s decision-making body voted on March 19 not to reduce or raise its benchmark interest rate in order to evaluate the impact of the administration’s trade and austerity measures.
Any monetary policy changes by the Fed regarding interest rates will influence overall borrowing rates, including for home loans. Mortgage rates are also impacted by longer-term Treasury bonds, inflation trends, labor market dynamics and international conflict.
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The central bank is projecting at least two interest rate cuts in 2025, with investors betting on the first this summer. But it’s unclear whether mortgage rates will go on a consistent downward trend or push back up before the spring homebuying season.
“Tariffs and geopolitical uncertainty are adding another layer of volatility,” said Nicole Rueth, SVP of the Rueth Team Powered by Movement Mortgage. “It’s like watching a seesaw: short-term swings, but the long-term trend is what matters,” said Rueth.
The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage has moved between 6.9% and 6.6% in recent weeks, according to Bankrate data. Fannie Mae projects mortgage rates to stay above 6.5% for the better part of the year.
“At the beginning of 2025, most economists expected rates to gradually fall throughout the course of the year,” said Rob Cook, CMO at Discover Home Loans. “However, uncertainty over the direction of the economy has caused many to expect that rates may stay closer to their current levels for some time,” said Cook.
Experts say there are plausible scenarios for both upward and downward movement in rates by the end of the year.
Mortgage rates and a possible recession in 2025
Even if the Fed doesn’t cut its benchmark rate soon, talk of a recession alone can put downward pressure on mortgage rates. Prospective homebuyers could see financing rates decrease in the coming months for “bad” reasons rather than “good” ones.
In times of high economic uncertainty, investors tend to flock to safer assets, like US Treasury bonds. Increased demand for bonds can push bond yields down and lead to lower mortgage rates, said Odeta Kushi, deputy chief economist at First American Financial Corporation.
A weaker economy could provide some temporary borrowing relief in time for the home shopping season. “Lower rates normally generate more homebuying demand,” said Cook. But if cheaper mortgages are a by-product of a shaky economy, it could keep the housing market frozen.
Reduced spending, hiring and investment could keep inventory tight and prices elevated, with buyers feeling the squeeze and staying on the sidelines. Job insecurity combined with the high cost of living is likely to make US households resistant to taking on mortgage debt.
Put simply, a recession won’t improve housing affordability over the long term. “If consumers are uncertain about their own financial futures they will likely pause those plans until they have greater certainty and stronger confidence,” said Cook.
Already, rumors of a potential economic downturn is weighing heavy on consumer confidence. “Falling consumer sentiment can be a warning sign for the economy,” said Kushi. “The concern is that consumer sentiment can harden into sediment.”
How to deal with high mortgage rates
Prospective homebuyers who have been waiting for mortgage rates to drop for the past few years may soon have to adjust to the “higher for longer” rate environment, with mortgage loan rates fluctuating between 5% and 7% over the longer term.
Rates around 6% may seem high compared to the recent 2% rates of the pandemic era. But experts say getting below 3% on a mortgage is unlikely without a severe economic downturn. Since the 1970s, the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage has been around 7%.
At the same time, today’s unaffordable housing market isn’t just a result of high mortgage rates. A long-standing housing shortage, expensive home prices and a loss of purchasing power due to inflation have locked out buyers over the last several years.
While market forces are out of your control, there are ways to make buying a home slightly more affordable.
Here’s what experts recommend:
💰 Build your credit score. Your credit score will help determine whether you qualify for a mortgage and at what interest rate. A credit score of 740 or higher will help you qualify for a lower rate.
💰 Save for a bigger down payment. A larger down payment allows you to take out a smaller mortgage and get a lower interest rate from your lender. If you can afford it, a down payment of at least 20% will also eliminate private mortgage insurance.
💰 Shop for mortgage lenders. Comparing loan offers from multiple mortgage lenders can help you negotiate a better rate. Experts recommend getting at least two to three loan estimates from different lenders.
💰 Consider mortgage points. You can get a lower mortgage rate by buying mortgage points, with each point costing 1% of the total loan amount. One mortgage point equals a 0.25% decrease in your mortgage rate.
More on the housing market
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